Q3 FY2025 Earnings Call
TSM · Preprocessing Report
2025-10-16
Quality
100%
92
Turns
11
Speakers
4
Sections
7
Exchanges
505
Claims

Entities by group 30

semiconductor foundry 1
TSMCcompany
company executives 5
C. C. WeipersonWendell HuangpersonJeff SupersonSunny LinpersonCliff Houperson
analysts 6
Bruce LupersonGokul HariharanpersonLaura ChenpersonCharlie ChanpersonArthur LaipersonKrish Sankarperson
process nodes 4
N2technologyN3technologyN2PtechnologyN5technology
advanced packaging 1
CoWoStechnology
investment banks 3
TD CowencompanyGoldman SachscompanyCitigroupcompany
foundry strategy 1
Foundry 2.0technology
semiconductor companies 2
NVIDIAcompanyIntelcompany
government bodies 1
European Commissioncompany
power delivery technology 1
Super Power Railtechnology
Ungrouped 5
United StatesotherDresdenotherHsinchu Science ParkotherKaohsiung Science ParkotherSEMICON Taiwanevent
REPORTING 66PROJECTING 50POSITIONING 123EXPLANATORY 38ANALYST 96

Topics 71

artificial intelligence×50revenue×29capacity×28capital expenditure×21gross margin×20process node×20demand×13wafer×13growth×13foundry×10packaging×9cowos×9node×8inventory×6customer×6semiconductor×6chip×6technology×5token×5smartphone×4

Themes 232

growth×24ai demand×8leading-edge×7revenue mix×7ai-related×6business×6strong×5planning×5arizona expansion×5capacity expansion×5overseas fabs×42026×4front-end×4gpu vs asic×4prebuild×4sequential increase×3fourth quarter guidance×3guidance×3ramp×3volume production×3data center ai×3long-term×3widening×3drivers×3u.s. market×3sequential growth×2customer demand×2megatrend×2advanced technology×2customer engagement×2government support×2construction×2expansion planning×2outlook×2investment×2ai accelerated×2demand-supply gap×2systems performance×2n2 dilution×2profitability timing×2customer discussions×2capex growth×2exponential×2demand expansion×2arizona fab project×2asp×2n3 tightness×2q&a×2vs asic demand×2gpu and asic×2quarterly presentation×1fourth quarter 2025×1above guidance×1cost and utilization improvement×1year-over-year increase×13-nanometer mix×15-nanometer mix×17-nanometer mix×1marketable securities×1current liabilities×1accrued liabilities×1turnover days×1days on hand×1operating activities×1capital spending×1cash distribution×1quarter-end liquidity×1dollar terms×1sequential and year-over-year guidance×1third and fourth quarter discussion×1cost improvement and utilization×1beat guidance×1actual versus guidance×1better-than-expected execution×1overseas capacity×1overseas fab dilution×1arizona scale-up×1customer and supplier coordination×1technology leadership×1customer growth support×1allocation to advanced process technologies×1allocation to specialty technologies×1allocation to advanced packaging and testing×1higher spending×1steady increase×1near-term outlook×1third quarter performance×1fourth quarter outlook×1non-ai recovery×1full year 2025 guidance×1no change×1policy uncertainty in consumer markets×1prudence into 2026×1future megatrend×1leadership and excellence×1capacity planning×1positive developments×1internal productivity×1sovereign demand×1semiconductor demand×1customer collaboration×1breadth across end markets×1industry-wide insight×1demand planning×1disciplined planning for profitable growth×1global footprint update×1overseas site decisions based on customer and government needs×1overseas expansion×1arizona process upgrade×1arizona land acquisition×1specialty production×12-nanometer expansion×1advanced packaging and leading-edge capacity×1a16 status×12nm leadership×1ecosystem adoption×1demand drivers×1product extension×1performance and power×1a16 launch×1hpc suitability×1n2 family expansion×1earnings update×1gen ai ecosystem×1sentiment×1stronger than expected×1technology cycle upturn×1versus capex cycle comparison×1multi-year planning×1higher outlook×1investor question×1customer and market outlook×1customer sentiment×1customer feedback×1demand and investment×1strength×1customer checks×1demand outlook×1question context×1increase×1capacity additions×1data center exposure×1ai mix×1capacity plan×1capacity disclosure×1tight supply×1very strong×1thermal×1value creation×1customer view×1taiwan appearance×1u.s.-china tensions×1in china×1china access and ai growth×1trade restrictions×12-nanometer ramp impact×1focus×1trend outlook×1n2 ramp×1n3 dilution×1overseas dilution×1rate movement×1rate control×1rate outlook×1currency sensitivity×1foreign exchange sensitivity×12nm dilution reference×12-nanometer dilution×12-nanometer profitability timeline×1profitability comparison×1upward trend×1cloud ramp×1demand forecast×1expansion cycle×1ramping and risk control×1capital intensity×1cloud megatrends×1forecasting levels appropriately×1application stage×1uncertainty×1search and social demand×1market opportunity×15-year outlook×1value capture and higher growth×1ai capex opportunity×1revenue growth×1cloud demand tracking×1predictability×1quarterly acceleration×1exact number next year×1ai growth gap×1above forecast×1ongoing improvement×1customer migration×1performance improvement×1ai planning×1demand pressure×1partner collaboration to meet demand×1leading nodes planning×1advanced packaging capacity×1u.s. support×1advanced nodes and packaging demand×1migration to n2 and n3×1capacity or volume growth from n2 ramp-up×1recovery×1technology mix×1wafer volume×1n3 expansion×1new additions×1conversion×1n5 and n3 optimization×1ai-era demand analogy×1ai data center conversion×1content per phone opportunity×1ai capacity revenue opportunity×1ai capacity investment×1ai data center content×1ai system composition×1ai system assembly×1broad chip support×1competition×1definition×1competitive landscape×1competitive advantage×1system performance and multi-chip designs×1u.s. competitor context×1advanced node×1end market×1smartphone growth×1customer prebuild×1seasonal level×1no prebuild×1

Key Metrics 46

revenue×30gross margin×30capacity×28cagr×14capital expenditure×12demand×10revenue growth×10capex×8growth×5wafer revenue share×4inventory×4capital budget×3operating margin×2capital expenditures×2investment×2volume production×2token growth×2eps×1return on equity×1cash and marketable securities×1current liabilities×1accrued liabilities×1accounts receivable turnover days×1cash from operations×1cash dividend×1cash balance×1exchange rate×1cost improvement×1cost×1cost structure×1manufacturing efficiency×1cash dividend per share×1token volume×1customers×1lead time×1yield×1construction×1ramp schedule×1fab×1revenue contribution×1performance×1dilution×1growth rate×1token consumption×1volume×1average selling price×1

Entities 693

TSMC×320C. C. Wei×79Wendell Huang×66Jeff Su×34Bruce Lu×23Gokul Hariharan×22Laura Chen×21Sunny Lin×19Charlie Chan×16N2×14Arthur Lai×14CoWoS×10N3×8Krish Sankar×8United States×7TD Cowen×6Foundry 2.0×6N2P×4Goldman Sachs×3N5×2Dresden×2European Commission×1Hsinchu Science Park×1Kaohsiung Science Park×1Super Power Rail×1Cliff Hou×1SEMICON Taiwan×1NVIDIA×1Citigroup×1Intel×1

Business Segments 15

Foundry×7High Performance Computing×2Consumer Electronics×2Internet Of Things×1Automotive×1Advanced Packaging×1Mobile×1

Sectors 59

artificial intelligence×30data center×8cloud computing×6smartphone×3high performance computing×2consumer internet×2consumer electronics×2advanced packaging×1manufacturing×1integrated circuit×1personal computing×1internet search×1semiconductor foundry×1

Regions 45

U.S.×13Arizona×12China×7Kumamoto×4Taiwan×4Germany×3United States×1Japan×1

Metadata Distributions

Sentiment
positive 88negative 13neutral 272
Temporality
backward 54forward 87current 232
Certainty
definitive 86confident 101moderate 79tentative 106speculative 1
Magnitude
major 59moderate 203minor 111
Direction
improvement 38decline 9flat 2mixed 5none 319
Time Horizon
immediate 56near_term 109medium_term 69long_term 15unspecified 124
Verifiability
quantitative 83event 28qualitative 262
Analyst Intent
probing 32challenging 7confirming 18seeking_detail 29seeking_guidance 10

Speakers

Executives
CWC. C. WeiCEOWHWendell HuangCFO
Analysts
CCCharlie ChananalystLCLaura ChenanalystGHGokul HariharananalystKSKrish SankaranalystSLSunny LinanalystALArthur LaianalystBLBruce Luanalyst
Other
JSJeff SuirOPOperatoroperator

Sections

TypeLabelSpeaker
preamblePreambleJeff Su
prepared_remarksPrepared RemarksC. C. Wei, Wendell Huang
qa_sessionQ&A Session—
closing_remarksClosing RemarksJeff Su

Q&A Exchanges 7

#AnalystFirmTurns
1
GHGokul Hariharan
JPMorgan12
2
CCCharlie Chan
Morgan Stanley12
3
SLSunny Lin
UBS15
4
BLBruce Lu
Goldman Sachs14
5
LCLaura Chen
Citi13
6
KSKrish Sankar
TD Cowen12
7
ALArthur Lai
Macquarie10

Claim Taxonomy 373

REPORTING66
resultFinancial outcome for a completed period48
metricNon-financial quantitative fact7
operationalDiscrete completed event11
PROJECTING50
guidanceQuantitative expectation with number + time25
commitmentPromise with binary verifiable outcome23
targetLong-term aspirational quantitative goal2
POSITIONING123
strategyPriority, direction, or initiative104
competitiveCompany's position or advantages2
opportunityMarket condition framed as growth driver14
riskHeadwind, constraint, or uncertainty3
EXPLANATORY38
attributionWhy a specific outcome happened2
contextNon-company macro/industry fact36
FRAMING0
thesisFalsifiable belief about how the world works0
ANALYST96
questionInterrogative seeking information54
observationRestates a fact or data point24
concernFlags a risk or challenge9
estimateAnalyst's own projection or calculation3
sentimentOpinion, praise, or critique6

Transcript

Preamble
JS
Jeff SuirTSMC
Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to TSMC's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. This is Jeff Su, TSMC's Director of Investor Relations and your host for today. TSMC is hosting our earnings conference call via live audio webcast through the company's website at www.tsmc.com, where you can also download the earnings release materials. If you are joining us through the conference call, your dial-in lines are in listen-only mode.
The format for today's event will be as follows: first, TSMC's Senior Vice President and CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, will summarize our operations in the third quarter 2025, followed by our guidance for the fourth quarter 2025. Afterwards, Mr. Huang and TSMC's Chairman and CEO, Dr. C.C. Wei, will jointly provide the company's key messages. Then we will open the line for Q&A. As usual, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements. Please refer to the safe harbor notice that appears in our press release. And now I would like to turn the call over to TSMC's CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, for the summary of operations and the current quarter guidance.
Prepared Remarks
WH
Wendell HuangCFOTSMC
Thank you, Jeff. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today.
My presentation will start with financial highlights for the third quarter 2025. After that, I will provide the guidance for the fourth quarter 2025. Third quarter revenue increased 6% sequentially in NT as our business was supported by strong demand for our leading-edge process technologies. In U.S. dollar terms, revenue increased 10.1% sequentially to $33.1 billion, slightly ahead of our third quarter guidance. Gross margin increased 0.9 percentage points sequentially to 59.5%, primarily due to cost improvement efforts and a higher capacity utilization rate, partially offset by an unfavorable foreign exchange rate and dilution from our overseas fabs. Accordingly, operating margin increased 1.0 percentage points sequentially to 50.6%. Overall, our third quarter EPS was TWD 17.44, up 39% year-over-year, and ROE was 37.8%.
Now let's move on to revenue by technology. 3-nanometer process technology contributed 23% of wafer revenue in the third quarter, while 5-nanometer and 7-nanometer accounted for 37% and 14%, respectively. Advanced technologies, defined as 7-nanometer and below, accounted for 74% of wafer revenue. Moving on to revenue contribution by platform. HPC remained flat quarter-over-quarter to account for 57% of our third quarter revenue.
Smartphone increased 19% to account for 30%. IoT increased 20% to account for 5%. Automotive increased 18% to account for 5%. And DCE decreased 20% to account for 1%.
Moving on to the balance sheet. We ended the third quarter with cash and marketable securities of TWD 2.8 trillion or USD 90 billion. On the liability side, current liability decreased by TWD 101 billion quarter-over-quarter, mainly due to the decrease of TWD 112 billion in accrued liabilities and others as we paid out 2025 provisional tax of TWD 136 billion.
In terms of financial ratios, accounts receivable turnover days increased 2 days to 25 days. Days of inventory decreased 2 days to 74 days due to strong shipment in N3 and N5. Regarding cash flow and CapEx.
During the third quarter, we generated about TWD 427 billion in cash from operations, spent TWD 287 billion in CapEx and distributed TWD 117 billion for fourth quarter '24 cash dividend. Overall, our cash balance increased TWD 106 billion to TWD 2.5 trillion at the end of the quarter. In U.S. dollar terms, our third quarter capital expenditures totaled $9.7 billion. I have finished my financial summary.
Now let's turn to our current quarter guidance. Based on the current business outlook, we expect our fourth quarter revenue to be between USD 32.2 billion and USD 33.4 billion, which represents a 1% sequential decrease or a 22% year-over-year increase at the midpoint. Based on the exchange rate assumption of USD 1 to TWD 30.6, gross margin is expected to be between 59% and 61%, operating margin between 49% and 51%. This concludes my financial presentation. Now let me turn to our key messages. I will start by talking about our third quarter '25 and fourth quarter '25 profitability.
Compared to second quarter, our third quarter gross margin increased by 90 basis points sequentially to 59.5%, primarily due to cost improvement efforts and a higher overall capacity utilization rate, partially offset by margin dilution from our overseas fabs and an unfavorable foreign exchange rate. Compared to our third quarter guidance, our actual gross margin exceeded the high end of the range provided 3 months ago by 200 basis points, mainly as the actual third quarter exchange rate was $1 to TWD 29.91 compared to our guidance of $1 to TWD 29. In addition, we also delivered better-than-expected cost improvement efforts. We have just guided our fourth quarter gross margin to increase by 50 basis points to 60% at the midpoint, primarily driven by a more favorable foreign exchange rate, partially offset by continued dilution from our overseas fabs. While the cost of overseas fabs remain higher, thanks to the company's overall larger scale, we now expect the gross margin dilution from the ramp-up of our overseas fabs to be closer to 2% in the second half of 2025. For the full year 2025, we now expect it to be between 1% to 2% as compared to 2% to 3% previously. Looking ahead, we continue to forecast the gross margin dilution from the ramp-up of our overseas fabs in the next several years to be 2% to 3% in the early stages and widen to 3% to 4% in the latter stages. We will leverage our increasing size in Arizona and work on our operations to improve the cost structure. We will also continue to work closely with our customers and suppliers to manage the impact. Overall, with our fundamental competitive advantages of manufacturing technology leadership and large-scale production base, we expect TSMC to be the most efficient and cost-effective manufacturer in every region that we operate. Now let me make some comments on our 2025 CapEx. As the structural AI-related demand continues to be very strong, we continue to invest to support our customers' growth. We are narrowing the range of our 2025 CapEx to be between USD 40 billion and USD 42 billion as compared to USD 38 billion to USD 42 billion previously. About 70% of the capital budget will be allocated for advanced process technologies, about 10% to 20% will be spent for specialty technologies, and about 10% to 20% will be spent for advanced packaging, testing, mass making and others. At TSMC, a higher level of capital expenditures is always correlated with higher growth opportunities in the following years. Even as we invest for the future growth with this higher level of CapEx spending in 2025, we remain committed to delivering profitable growth to our shareholders. We also remain committed to a sustainable and steadily increasing cash dividend per share on both an annual and quarterly basis. Now let me turn the microphone over to C.C.
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CW
C. C. WeiCEOTSMC
Thank you, Wendell. Good afternoon, everyone.
First, let me start with our near-term demand outlook. We concluded our third quarter with revenue of USD 33.1 billion, slightly above our guidance in U.S. dollar terms, mainly due to the strong demand for our leading edge process technologies. Moving into fourth quarter 2025, we expect our business to be supported by continued strong demand for our leading edge process technologies. We continue to observe robust AI-related demand throughout 2025, while non-AI end market segment have bottomed out and are seeing a mild recovery. Supported by our strong technology differentiation and broad customer base, we now expect our full year 2025 revenue to increase by close to mid-30s percent year-over-year in U.S. dollar terms. While we have not observed any change in our customers' behavior so far, we understand there are uncertainties and risk from the potential impact of tariff policies, especially in consumer-related and price-sensitive end market segment. As such, we will remain mindful of the potential impact and be prudent in our business planning going into 2026 by continuing to invest for the future megatrend. Amidst the uncertainty, we will also continue to focus on the fundamentals of our business, that is technology leadership, manufacturing excellence and customer trust, to further strengthen our competitive positioning.
Next, let me talk about the AI demand outlook and TSMC's capacity planning process disciplines. Recent developments in AI market continue to be very positive. The explosive growth in token volume demonstrate the increasing consumer AI model adoption which means more and more computation is needed, leading to more leading-edge silicon demand. Companies such as TSMC, we are leveraging AI internally to drive greater productivity and efficiency to create more value. As such, enterprise AI is another source of demand.
In addition, we continue to observe the rising emergence of sovereign AI. We are also happy to see continued strong outlook from our customers. In addition, we directly received very strong signals from our customers' customers, requesting the capacity to support their business. Thus, our conviction in the AI megatrend is strengthening and we believe the demand for semiconductor will continue to be very fundamental. As a key enabler of AI applications, TSMC's biggest responsibility is to prepare the most advanced technologies and necessary capacity to support our customers' growth. To address the structural increase in the long-term market demand profile, TSMC employs a disciplined and thorough capacity planning system. Externally, we work closely with our customers and our customers' customer to plan our capacity.
We have more than 500 different customers across all the end market segments. In addition, as process technology complexity increases, the engagement lead time with customer is now at least 2 to 3 years in advance. Therefore, we probably get the deepest and widest look possible in the industry. Internally, our planning system involve multiple teams across several functions to assess and evaluate the market demand from both top-down and bottom-up approach to determine the appropriate capacity to build. This is especially important when we have such high forecasted demand from AI-related business. As the world's most reliable and effective capacity provider, we will continue to work closely with our customers to invest in leading edge specialty and advanced packaging technologies to support their growth. We will also remain disciplined and thorough in our capacity planning approach to ensure we deliver profitable growth for our shareholders. Now let me talk about TSMC's global manufacturing footprint update. All our overseas decisions are based on our customers' need as they value some geographic flexibility and necessary level of government support. This is also to maximize the value for our shareholders.
With a strong collaboration and support from our leading U.S. customers and the U.S. federal, state and city governments, we continue to speed up our capacity expansion in Arizona. We are making tangible progress and executing well to our plan. In addition, we are preparing to upgrade our technologies faster to — and to a more advanced process technologies in Arizona, given the strong AI-related demand from our customers. Furthermore, we are close to securing a second large piece of land nearby to support our current expansion plans and provide more flexibility in response to the very strong multiyear AI-related demand.
Our plan will enable TSMC to scale up through an independent giga fab cluster in Arizona to support the needs of our leading-edge customers in smartphone, AI and HPC applications. Next, in Japan, thanks to the strong support from the Japan central, prefectural and local government, our first specialty fab in Kumamoto has already started volume production in late 2024 with very good yield. The construction of our second fab has begun, and the ramp schedule will be based on our customers' needs and market conditions. In Europe, we have received strong commitment from European Commission and the German federal state and city government. Construction of our specialty fab in Dresden, Germany, has also started, and we are progressing smoothly with our plans. The ramp schedule will be based on our customers' need and market conditions.
In Taiwan, with support from the Taiwan government, we are preparing for multiple phases of 2-nanometer fab in both Hsinchu and Kaohsiung Science Parks. We will continue to invest in leading edge and advanced packaging facilities in Taiwan over the next several years. By expanding our global footprint while continuing to invest in Taiwan, TSMC can continue to be the trusted technology and capacity provider of global logic IC industry for years to come. Finally, let me talk about our end-to-end A16 status. Our 2-nanometer and A16 technologies lead the industry in addressing sizable demand for energy-efficient computing, and almost all innovators are working with TSMC.
N2 is well on track for volume production later this quarter. With full year, we expect a faster ramp in 2026, fueled by both smartphone and HPC AI applications. With our strategy of continuous enhancement, we also introduced N2P as an extension of our N2 family. N2P feature further performance and power benefits on top of N2 and volume production is scheduled for second half '26. We also introduced A16 featuring our best-in-class Super Power Rail or SPR. A16 is best suited for specific HPC product with compressed signal routes and dense power delivery networks. Volume production is on track for second half '26. We believe N2, N2P, A16 and its derivatives will propel our N2 family to be another large and long-lasting node for TSMC. This concludes our key message, and thank you for your attention.
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Q&A Session
Q&A 1/7
OP
Operatoroperator
First one, Gokul Hariharan, JPMorgan.
GH
Gokul HariharananalystJPMorgan
Great results again. So on the AI front, C.C., I think you have met with pretty much everybody who is driving the Gen AI revolution over the last couple of months. And as you said, everybody seems to be a lot more positive. I think we gave a guidance of mid-40s data center AI growth CAGR earlier this year until 2029. Anything that you see which should kind of change that number? Definitely feels like the growth today seems to be much stronger.
And related to that, you did talk about the very detailed capacity expansion planning that TSMC does. In past technology cycles, TSMC CapEx has gone up significantly to prepare for the next upgrade or next leading-edge node. But in this cycle, TSMC revenues have grown 50% from the previous peak in '22, CapEx has only grown about 10%. So how should we think about the CapEx over the next couple of years? I know that you're not giving numerical guidance yet, but I just wanted to understand like are we looking at much higher CapEx in the next couple of years, given all these conversations you've had. And I have a follow up after that.
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JS
Jeff SuirTSMC
Okay. So Gokul's first question, sorry, Gokul, let me summarize for everyone's benefit. So again, he wants to know, firstly, related to the AI-related demand that TSMC works with many, if not everyone, who is doing AI. And many of the customers seem to be even more positive today. So I guess he would like to ask C.C. sort of what are we seeing or hearing from our customers. And then we had previously said that the next 5 years from 2024 to '29, we expect AI accelerator to grow at a mid-40s CAGR. Is there any update to this? I think this is the first part, then I'll get to the second part on CapEx.
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CW
C. C. WeiCEOTSMC
That's a long question, isn't it? Gokul, the AI demand actually continue to be very strong, it's more — more stronger than we thought 3 months ago, okay? So in today's situation, we have talked to customers and then we talk to customers' customer. So the CAGR we — previously we announced is about mid-40s. It's still — it's a little bit better than that. We will update you probably in beginning of next year. So we have a more clear picture. Today, the number are insane.
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JS
Jeff SuirTSMC
And then the second part of Gokul's question are related to CapEx.
He notes that in the past, when TSMC sees opportunities for higher growth, past cycles or past instances, we would step up the CapEx significantly to prepare to drive the future growth. But he notes, this cycle, actually, though, while CapEx is increasing, the revenue is increasing even faster. So his question really, I think, how do we see this playing out over the next few years, both in terms of the CapEx spend and the growth relative to the revenue growth.
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WH
Wendell HuangCFOTSMC
Okay.
Gokul, every year, we spend the CapEx based on the — our business opportunity in the following few years. As long as we believe there are business opportunities, we will not hesitate to invest. And if we do our job right, the growth of our business, of our revenue should outpace the growth of the CapEx.
And that's what we have been delivering in the past few years. Now going forward, assuming we're doing — still doing a very good job, then we will continue to see that happening again. So a company of our size, the CapEx number, it's unlikely to certainly go up significantly in any given year. When we continue to invest and our growth is outpacing our CapEx growth, then you see the growth like what we have done in the past few years.
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GH
Gokul HariharananalystJPMorgan
Understood. I know that it is unlikely to drop, but it is also likely to grow quite a bit given what C.C. mentioned in terms of every customer asking you and every customers' customer requesting you for capacity addition, right?
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WH
Wendell HuangCFOTSMC
Yes. As I said, a higher level of CapEx is always going to be correlated with a higher growth opportunity. So as C.C. said, next year looks to be a healthy year, and we are confident on the mega trend that we'll continue to invest.
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GH
Gokul HariharananalystJPMorgan
Yes. Maybe one more follow-up question from me.
C.C., I think last year also, you gave us an indication of how much CoWoS capacity you would be building. I think you talked about 2x, of doubling the CoWoS capacity. It clearly feels like even that is not enough. Could you give us some idea about how much capacity would you be building next year just to get some idea about what you are seeing in terms of AI demand? And also just to get some understanding of TSMC's data center AI exposure, I think last year, we talked about mid-teens revenues. Where do we end up this year? Do we end up close to like 30% of revenues coming from AI?
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JS
Jeff SuirTSMC
Okay. So Gokul, your second question, really, he wants to understand can we provide any detail or color on the CoWoS capacity plan for 2026 in terms of year-on-year increase. And also in terms of our definition of AI accelerated revenue, the narrow definition, how much will it contribute for 2025 revenue? Is it 30%?
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CW
C. C. WeiCEOTSMC
Well, Gokul, this is C.C. Wei again.
Talking about the CoWoS capacity, all I can say is continue the 3 months ago, we are working very hard to narrow the gap between the demand and supply. We are still working to increase the capacity in 2026. The real number, we probably update you next year. Today, all I want to say about the AI everything related like front-end and back-end capacity is very tight. We are working very hard to make sure that the gap will be narrow, but all I can say is we are working very hard.
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Jeff SuirTSMC
Okay. Thank you, Gokul. I think we need to move on in the interest of time. So operator, can we move to the next participant, please?
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Q&A 2/7
OP
Operatoroperator
Yes. Next one, Charlie Chan, Morgan Stanley.
CC
Charlie ChananalystMorgan Stanley
And again, congratulations for very strong results, C.C., Wendell and Jeff.
So my first question is really about your business demand. As C.C. just mentioned, your front-end demand is also very strong into next year. But one of your major customer said that more so is that — I think his point is that doing maybe a system-level innovation in thermal, et cetera, can boost up more kind of performance. So just a kind of a dumb question. How do we reconcile your very, very strong leading edge demand and the customers continue to migrate to your most advanced nodes? And also you continue to reflect value, whereas the customer continue to think that Moore's law is dead. Can we get some clarification from TSMC?
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Jeff SuirTSMC
So Charlie's question is very specific although — he wants us to comment on a customer saying Moore's law is dead but how do we reconcile this with a very strong leading edge demand into 2026 and also with system-level innovations?
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C. C. WeiCEOTSMC
Okay. Charlie, this is C.C. Wei.
Yes, one of my customers, very important customer say Moore's law is dead, but what he meant is it's not only we rely on the chip technology anymore, now we have to focus on that whole systems' performance. So he want to emphasize the whole systems' performance rather than just talking about the Moore's law, which is not enough to meet his requirement. So again, we work very closely with his people and to design our technology both in front-end and back-end and also in all the packaging to meet his requirement. That's all I can say.
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Jeff SuirTSMC
Okay. Thank you, C.C. Do you have a second question, Charlie?
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Charlie ChananalystMorgan Stanley
Yes, I do, Jeff. Yes. So anyway, I would interpret it as so-called Moore's Law 2.0 that your co-COO, Mr. Cliff Hou also comes here during the SEMICON Taiwan. But anyway, thanks, C.C., for your commentary. And my second question is actually a follow-up from last quarter's same question.
Back then, I consulted you about China AI GPU demand, right, whether you can seize the market opportunity because China, certainly, they also expanding their AI infrastructure very rapidly. But given the recent kind of back and forth between U.S. and China, whether China can really import NVIDIA GPU, would that kind of discount your potential long-term growth of the AI CAGR? Is that something that TSMC would worry about?
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Jeff SuirTSMC
Okay. So Charlie's second question is related around AI demand and specific to China. With the sort of the export control and restriction, his question is, does that impact our ability to address the market opportunity and will this impact our AI CAGR growth if we are not allowed to fully serve China.
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Charlie ChananalystMorgan Stanley
Yes. I think it's a little bit of both sides, meaning restriction from the U.S. but also China government's kind of discouragement to procure U.S. chip. Sorry for the interruption.
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C. C. WeiCEOTSMC
Well, Charlie, to speak the truth, I have confidence on my customers, both in graphic or in ASIC, they are all performing well. And so if the China market is not available, but I still think the AI's growth will be very dramatically and as I said, very positive, and I have confidence that our customers' performance, and they will continue to grow, and we will support them.
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Charlie ChananalystMorgan Stanley
So even with limited opportunity from China for the time being, you are still confident that a 40% CAGR or even higher can be achieved in coming years?
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C. C. WeiCEOTSMC
You are right.
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Jeff SuirTSMC
Operator, can we move on to the next participant, please?
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Q&A 3/7
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Operatoroperator
Yes. Next one, Sunny Lin, UBS.
SL
Sunny LinanalystUBS
Congrats on the very strong gross margin.
So my first question is how should we think about 2026. I understand we should get better color maybe into January, but just want to get some directional major puts and takes for gross margin trending going to 2026. Especially, how should we think about the gross margin impact from 2-nanometer ramp for 2026?
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Jeff SuirTSMC
Okay. So Sunny's first question is regarding gross margin. She would like to know directionally, how do we see the gross margin for next year 2026 in terms of certain puts and takes. And also if Wendell is able to comment specifically, Sunny, sorry if I heard you right, on the N2 dilution impact, correct?
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Sunny LinanalystUBS
Yes, that's right.
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Jeff SuirTSMC
Okay. That's her first question.
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Wendell HuangCFOTSMC
Okay. Sunny. Yes, it's too early to talk about 2026. But you already mentioned about the N2 dilution. And as all the new node, when they just come out, the N2 will have dilution in our gross margin in 2026. But at the same time, the N3 dilution is gradually coming down, and we expect the N3 to catch up to the corporate average sometimes in 2026. The other factors include like overseas fabs dilution, which will continue and which we said that it will be about 2% to 3% dilution in the early stage of the next several years. That will also be there. And also we all saw the dramatic foreign exchange rate movement in the earlier part of this year. There's no control. We don't know where that will be. But every percentage move of dollar against NT will affect our gross margin by 50 — 40 basis points. So that just gives you some rough idea.
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Sunny LinanalystUBS
Got it. Sorry, if I may, yes, a very quick follow-up. And so on 2-nanometer, would the typical 2% to 3% dilution by new node for the first 7 to 8 quarters of mass production be a good reference for 2-nanometer as well for 2026?
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Jeff SuirTSMC
Okay. So Sunny, a quick follow-up. She wants to know for the 2-nanometer dilution, if we're able to provide any detail. And can she still think about it in terms of 7 to 8 quarters or 6 to 8 quarters dilution to reach the — time, sorry, to reach the corporate average?
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Wendell HuangCFOTSMC
Yes. Sunny, let me share with you.
N2's structural profitability is better than the N3, okay? Secondly, it's less meaningful nowadays to talk about how long it will take for a new node to reach to a corporate average in terms of profitability. And that's because the corporate profitability, the corporate gross margin moves and generally, it has been moving upwards. So less meaningful to talk about that, okay?
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Sunny LinanalystUBS
Got it. No problem. That's very helpful. My second question is maybe for C.C. Thanks a lot for sharing with us the details on how you think about the capacity expansions and planning. And so my question is now cloud AI is ramping a lot faster than the prior opportunities like smartphones and PCs. Yes, I think the demand for cloud AI is also may be harder to forecast. So just want to maybe get a bit more color from you that now versus the prior rounds of capacity expansions, what is TSMC doing differently versus before? And how do you ensure that while you are ramping up the capacities more quickly while still having good risk control?
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Jeff SuirTSMC
Okay. Thank you, Sunny. So Sunny's second question is regarding capacity planning and expansion. In a capital-intensive business, she notes this is very important. But in the past smartphone and PC megatrends; today, it's AI and cloud AI.
She is wondering, does that make this planning process more difficult to forecast? And what are we doing differently or how do we forecast this to make sure that we are investing appropriately?
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C. C. WeiCEOTSMC
Sunny, indeed, right now because of — I believe we are just in the early stage of the AI application. So very hard to make the right forecast at this moment. What do we do differently? There's a big difference because right now, we pay a lot of attention to our customers' customer.
We talk to and then discuss with them and look at their applications, be it in the search engine or in social media application, we talk with them and see how they view the AI application to those functions. And then we make a judgment about what AI going to grow. And so this is quite different as compared with before, we only talk to our customers and have an internal study, this is different. Did I answer your question?
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Sunny LinanalystUBS
Got it. Yes, yes, yes, and looking forward to the CapEx guide in January.
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C. C. WeiCEOTSMC
You're welcome.
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Jeff SuirTSMC
All right. Thank you, Sunny. Operator, can we move on to the next participant, please?
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Q&A 4/7
OP
Operatoroperator
Next one, Bruce Lu, Goldman Sachs.
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Bruce LuanalystGoldman Sachs
I think Jensen talked about like $3 trillion to $4 trillion AI infrastructure opportunity by 2030, right? This compared to like 600 billion CapEx recent — for this year implies for about 40% CAGR growth.
This is similar to Jensen's guidance for the AI growth, right? But for me, first of all, what I want to know is what's TSMC's view for the AI infrastructure growth for the next 5 years? And what's TSMC's forecast for the token growth rate in the next few years?
TSMC used to provide like semi industry growth, foundry growth and how much TSMC can outperform the industry, right? Given the context that can we assume like TSMC AI-related revenue can track — will track with the CapEx growth of AI or the major cloud service provider? Or should we expect even higher growth rate for TSMC considering you're potentially getting more value out of it?
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Jeff SuirTSMC
Okay. Let me try to summarize your question, Bruce. He notes that one of our customers has highlighted a $3 trillion to $4 trillion infrastructure opportunity over the next few years compared to 600 billion current CapEx, implying a 40-something percent CAGR or growth rate, which is similar to ours. Bruce's question is, he wants to know what is TSMC's forecast or view for AI infrastructure growth. He would also like to know what is TSMC's forecast or view for the token growth. And then what is TSMC's AI-related revenue growth? Can it track that of the cloud service providers? And his question is, should it be even higher — shouldn't it be even higher given the value that we capture. That's actually several questions, but is that correct, Bruce?
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Bruce LuanalystGoldman Sachs
That's right.
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C. C. WeiCEOTSMC
Well, Bruce, essentially just want to know that how accurate that we can predict the AI demand. We give you a number, roughly 40 — the mid-40s is the CAGR, not including all the infrastructure build up and also align with our major customers' forecast for their view. More than that, I think if we are talking about the tokens, the number of tokens increase is exponential. And I believe that almost every 3 months, it will be exponentially increase.
And that's why we are still very comfortable that the demand on leading edge semiconductor is real. And as I continue to say that we look at all the demand and look at our capacity expansion, we need — TSMC need to work very hard to narrow the gap. That's what we are doing right now. Exact number that we probably will share with you in next year, so that when we have a very better, clear picture.
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Bruce LuanalystGoldman Sachs
I just had a quick follow-up.
I'll use that as my second question anyway. I think the question is that the token growth seems to be substantially higher than the AI-related revenue guidance on TSMC, right? So the gap is actually enlarging if you compound in the outer years, right? That's why — that's the differences between the — what we see for the current TSMC outlook and the potential token consumption, right? So the gap is continue to see enlarging. How do we solve this? And do we really see that as a major issue?
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Jeff SuirTSMC
Okay. So Bruce's second question, which is a follow-on from his first, is that the token growth is growing at a much higher rate or exponentially than TSMC's AI revenue growth, and this gap will only enlargen or widen in the next few years. So he wants to know — sorry, Bruce, basically, what's the implication to TSMC or how do we see this? Is that correct?
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Bruce LuanalystGoldman Sachs
That's right.
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C. C. WeiCEOTSMC
Okay, Bruce, you are right, you are right. The tokens and the number of tokens increase exponentially is much, much higher than TSMC's CAGR as we forecasted. And let me tell you that, first, our technology continue to improve. And so our customer moving from one node to the next node so that they can handle much more tokens number in their basic fundamental calculation. So that's one thing. We progressed very well for one node into the other node, and our customer working with TSMC to continuously to improve their performance. And that's why when we say that we have about 40%, 45%, CAGR, then the token number are exponentially increased because of our customer and TSMC's technology combined that can handle much more or much efficient than before. Did I answer your question?
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Bruce LuanalystGoldman Sachs
I see. So you believe your node migration plus your customer design change can fulfill or can meet the exponential growth for the token consumption?
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C. C. WeiCEOTSMC
Exactly.
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Bruce LuanalystGoldman Sachs
Is that the conclusion?
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C. C. WeiCEOTSMC
Yes.
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Jeff SuirTSMC
Sorry, Bruce, that was your second question. Operator, we need to move on. Thank you, Bruce.
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Q&A 5/7
OP
Operatoroperator
Next on, Laura Chen, Citi.
LC
Laura ChenanalystCiti
Appreciate C.C. sharing your view on TSMC strategy on the AI capacity planning. I think along with very strong advanced node demand, I believe that advanced packaging like CoWoS is also one of the focus for your AI clients they are now looking for. I recall that TSMC previously also planned to expand advanced packaging in Arizona. So can you give us an update here? And also, I mean, for the time being, just very stretched demand at the moment. So TSMC will work more closely with your OSAT partner to fulfill the strong demand at the same time? That's my first question.
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Jeff SuirTSMC
Okay. Thank you, Laura. So her first question is on capacity planning. We have talked earlier on the call about the planning for leading nodes. She wants to understand also on the CoWoS capacity and specifically, I guess, advanced packaging in Arizona and how do we work with our OSAT partners.
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C. C. WeiCEOTSMC
Okay.
We have announced our plan to build two advanced packaging fab in Arizona and to support our customers. But at the same time, actually, right now, we are working with one OSAT, a big company and our good partner, and they are going to build their fab in Arizona, and we are working with them because they're already breaking ground, and the schedule is earlier than TSMC's two advanced packaging fabs. And we are working with them. And our main purpose is to support our customer, and so we can many in the U.S.
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Jeff SuirTSMC
Laura, do you have a second question?
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Laura ChenanalystCiti
Yes. Certainly, I mean, obviously, we see that the advanced node, advanced packaging are quite strong.
And also at the same time, we are also seeing that the migration is also happening for N2 and N3. So just wondering that from the revenue growth perspective, I know it's still early to predict next year based on your guidance. But I'm just wondering, will it be more driven by the ASP increase because of the technology migration? TSMC will be able to sell in your value or more that will be driven by the capacity or volume growth on both N2 ramp-up? And also, C.C., you mentioned some of the mild silicon recovery. So that may also drive some of the volume growth into next year. So just wondering, like if you look at the growth outlook, that will be more driven by the technology upgrade ASP increase or also more like a volume? That's my second question.
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Jeff SuirTSMC
Okay. So Laura's, again, second question is looking at 2026.
She would like to understand what will be the key drivers of the growth. Is it more from the technology mix migration, things like N2? Is it more from ASP upgrade? Or is it more from just pure wafer volume growth?
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C. C. WeiCEOTSMC
Laura, all the above. All right? You knew it, right?
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Laura ChenanalystCiti
May I also follow up that because we see that actually N3 is very tight. And at the same time, we are also kind of expanding on N2. And C.C., you previously mentioned that you will migrate some of that to even N7, N6, and also N5G like — but specifically on N3, do we also need to add more capacity into next year, newly added capacity?
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Jeff SuirTSMC
Sorry, Laura is saying that will — next year, will we continue — sorry, Laura, if I understand correctly, will we need to add new capacity? Will we continue to do conversion? What will we do to support the very strong demand we see at leading edge next year?
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Laura ChenanalystCiti
Right. Yes.
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C. C. WeiCEOTSMC
Well, let me answer that question. We continue to optimize the N5, N3 capacity to support our customer. For the new building for the N3 capacity to expand, we put the new building for the N2 technology. That's today's plan.
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Jeff SuirTSMC
Thank you, Laura. Operator, in the interest of time, we'll take the questions from the last two participants, please. Thank you.
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Q&A 6/7
OP
Operatoroperator
Yes. Next one, Krish Sankar, TD Cowen.
KS
Krish SankaranalystTD Cowen
My first one is, C.C., about 10 years ago, back in the smartphone days, TSM would talk about the revenue opportunity for TSM per phone. I was wondering in today's world, can you talk about how much 1 gigawatt of AI data center capacity could translate in terms of wafer demand or revenue for TSMC? And then I have a follow-up.
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Jeff SuirTSMC
Okay. So Krish's first question, he noted in the past, in the smartphone megatrend, we talked about the content per phone opportunity for TSMC. So now with AI, is there a way to frame or quantify 1 gigawatt of data center capacity, what is the revenue opportunity for TSMC?
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C. C. WeiCEOTSMC
We — recently, as I said, the AI demand continue to increase, and then my customer say that 1 gigawatt, they need about — invest about 50 billion, how much of TSMC's wafer inside, we are not ready to share with you yet because of different from different projects, okay?
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Krish SankaranalystTD Cowen
And then a quick follow-up.
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C. C. WeiCEOTSMC
Yes, excuse me, I just want to say that right now, it's not only one chip. Actually, it's many chip together to form a system, all right?
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Krish SankaranalystTD Cowen
Got it, got it. Very helpful for that. Then a quick follow-up. Obviously, you first forecast long-term trend and then build capacity toward that. I'm kind of curious, when you look at the AI demand over the next several years, from a TSMC angle, does it matter whether it's — that demand is coming through a GPU or an ASIC? Does it have an impact on your revenue or gross margin mix?
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Jeff SuirTSMC
Okay. Thank you, Krish. So his second question is, again, with our business outlook. Again, we forecast the long-term trends. We plan our capacity, as C.C. said, in a thorough and disciplined manner. His question is, what are the implications, for example, of — I believe you said GPU versus ASIC in terms of the AI market. Do we have a preference or what? Is there a difference for TSMC? Is that correct, Krish?
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Krish SankaranalystTD Cowen
That's right. The impact to revenue and gross margin, whether it's a GPU or an ASIC.
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Jeff SuirTSMC
Right. Okay.
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C. C. WeiCEOTSMC
Krish, no matter if it's GPU or it's an ASIC, it's all using that our leading-edge technologies. And from our perspective, we are working with our customer, and we all know that they are going to grow strongly in the next several years. So no differentiation in front of TSMC. We support all kinds of types.
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Jeff SuirTSMC
Operator, can we take — thank you, Krish. So we'll take the question from the final participant, please.
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Q&A 7/7
OP
Operatoroperator
Last one, Arthur Lai, Macquarie.
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Arthur LaianalystMacquarie
Congrats on a strong outlook. I'm Arthur Lai from Macquarie. So my question is about competition. So C.C., you define the Foundry 2.0 market. And I wonder what's the strategic initiative that TSMC's undertaking to further strengthening your competitive landscape and also in this broader ecosystem. So some context. I got the question from the U.S. investor as your clients have announced they invest in Intel.
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Jeff SuirTSMC
Okay. So Arthur's question is around competition. In the Foundry 2.0 landscape, what strategic initiatives, what things are TSMC focusing on to further strengthen our competitive advantage? I think the last part, Arthur, you're asking in the environment where one of our competitors in the U.S., how do we focus on the competition? Is that correct?
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Arthur LaianalystMacquarie
Yes, yes.
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C. C. WeiCEOTSMC
Okay.
Let me answer that one. When we introduced our Foundry 2.0, we set a purpose that — as I said, one of my customers say that the system performance is very important in these days, they're not only a single chip. And also — let me share with you that our advanced packaging revenue is approaching close to 10% and it's significant in our revenue, and it's important for our customer. So that's why we introduced Foundry 2.0 to categorize this foundry business. Not as usual, previously, we only look at the front-end portion. Now it's the whole thing, the front-end, the back-end and also important for our customer. That's why we introduced 2.0. Talking about our competition in the U.S. Well, that competitor happened to be our customer, very good customer. So in fact, we are working with them to — for their most advanced product. Other than that, I don't want to make any more comment.
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Arthur LaianalystMacquarie
Can I ask one more question?
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Jeff SuirTSMC
Yes, you have two. So your second question, sure.
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Arthur LaianalystMacquarie
Yes.
My second question is very quick on the end demand. So I recall, C.C., you, last time, mentioned that we should also monitor and worry about the prebuild, especially in the consumer electronics. And then this quarter, our number suggest that there's a Q-o-Q 19% growth in the smartphone. So my question is, do you still worry about the prebuild?
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Jeff SuirTSMC
All right. So Arthur's second question is on smartphone. Do we — are we concerned about prebuild or sort of, I guess, pulling prebuild from customers in that regard?
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C. C. WeiCEOTSMC
No. We don't worry about the prebuild because of — when you have a prebuild, you have inventory. And in this stage, the inventory already go to the very seasonal level and very healthy. So no prebuild.
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Closing Remarks
JS
Jeff SuirTSMC
Okay. Thank you, C.C. Thank you, Arthur. Thank you, everyone.
So this concludes our Q&A session. Before we conclude today's conference, please be advised that the replay of the conference will be accessible within 30 minutes from now. The transcript will become available 24 hours from now, and both are going to be available through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.
So thank you, everyone, for joining us today. We hope you all continue to stay well, and we hope you will join us again next quarter in early 2026. Thank you, and have a good day.
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